EUR/USD Weekly Pre-Session Analysis | 2025/05/13
Welcome to this week’s pre-session analysis for EUR/USD. In this outlook, we’ll break down current technical conditions, price structure, liquidity zones, and potential trading opportunities. This format suits swing or intraday traders planning ahead of the Monday open.
📌 Weekly Context & Market Drivers
The EUR/USD pair closed last week under bearish pressure following stronger-than-expected US NFP data and unchanged Unemployment Rate - Federal Funds Rate. Risk sentiment remains bearish as markets await the upcoming US CPI release and US PPI numbers.
📈 Technical Overview
- Market Structure: Bearish on Daily and 4h TF
- Supply & Demand: A major DZ below on a DTF and a SZ on a 4hTF that pushed price lower as a bearish continuation.
- Fibo Levels / Premium-Discount: Price reacts in equilibrium and returns to a Discount Zone on the Daily and 4hTF
- Liquidity: Friday’s high triggered resting liquidity and pushed the price lower
- Fractal Structure Shift / CHoCH: There is no sign of Market Structure Shift for the moment, and a downtrend continuation until the price mitigates the Demand Zone looks logical.
🔎 Setup Considerations
A consolidation between the 2 fractal points (1.12930 - 1.11968) is more likely. The existing 4H FVG is an element that could help in this direction.
Entry trigger: confirmation via 1H bearish BOS below fractal low + FVG reaction
💡 Strategy Bias
Our bias remains bearish for the week unless price reclaims 1.12930 cleanly and holds with volume. If price consolidates near the current zone, breakout setups will be invalidated.
🌍 Cross-Asset Correlation
DXY remains in a short-term uptrend, supporting the bearish pressure on EUR/USD. US10Y yields have also ticked higher, indicating increased USD demand.
📌 Related Analyses
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.
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